Last Updated on February 6, 2021 by Chin Yi Xuan

If you are checking out my Weekly Trade Review for the first time, scroll to the bottom so you can get a context of this review.

WEEKLY REVIEW – WEEK 1, FEBRUARY 2021 (1/2/2021 – 5/2/2021)

Stats:

a. Profit Calendar: 

Profit Calendar - Week 1, Feb 2021
Profit Calendar – Week 1, Feb 2021

b. Weekly Stats: 

Weekly Stats
Weekly Stats: Win Rate, Expectancy, R-Multiple

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Weekly P/L, Max Profit & Max Drawdown (in points, not currency)
Weekly P/L, Max Runup & Max Drawdown (in points, not currency)

Weekly Trade Review

A. Overview:

A solid trade execution week with several key points to improve on.

B. What I did well:

1. Solid pre-open preparation: Risk Pillars, Self-Reminder, No-Trade Zone, Trade If/Then + Rating + Sizing)

2. More mindful of ‘More Likely vs Less Likely’ thought process while the market is open.

3. Mindful of shifts in DVA (Rhythm & OF).

4. Dynamic trade if/then with areas of attention. This made it easier for me to devise add-if/stop-if scenarios quickly as market develops.

5. Patience: Did not rush to take trades if the entry is not ideal. Was patient with my trade ideas by letting rhythm form before making decisions.

6. Good emotional control when tail events happen (internet disconnected, laptop auto shut-down)

C. Challenges faced:

1. Tail events: Internet got disconnected on Monday (1/2) while I was managing my trades – ordered a new router to improve wifi strength at home.

Laptop has issue for weeks where it went overheated and shutdown at random while charging – new laptop finally arrived on Friday and set it up immediately for Fri trading session – good job on still executing well even though laptop has been an issue for the past week!

2. Sizing: Still lack the confidence to size up in solid trading ideas. Max chips risked on A trades was at max 3 this week where my plan was to do 5 in A trades.

Weekly Playbook Trades:

In this section, I will share several trade ideas that made the most sense to me for the trading week. These are my A trades (a.k.a. my Playbook trades), and I look to keep improving on them.

Playbook Trade #1: RPB Short Trade

Date & Time: 1/2/2021, 9:50am EST

Context: Price opens above CVA2. Initially planned for a BPB long but I did not take the trade at open as I have missed my entry – was patient as told myself to only take BPB long if price breaks above swing high.

Trade Execution: At open, price did not break above prior swing high and instead sell down into CVA2 (OF also broke below zig-zag pattern). As such, an RPB short in CVA2 is more likely.

As price tried to pullback with OF, I shorted with 2 chips once I see sellers starting to hit the bids again at 1a.

  • TP1: POC/VWAP
  • TP2: Dotted pink line (prior day VAL)
  • SL: Above VAH

Trade Management:

Good execution with TP1 on POC/VWAP. As price hit TP1, I kept my areas of attention on VAL for the trade management of last position.

Exited my trade at 1b when strong buying OF stepped in, indicating buyers starting to hit offers.

What could be better:

Entry with 3 chips instead of 2 as:

  1. This is an A trade.
  2. This is a relatively good entry if the trade idea is right.
01022021 ES trade screenshots
01022021 ES trade screenshots

Playbook Trade #2: BPB Long Trade

Date & Time: 2/2/2021, 10:06am EST

Context: Price formed a 0.5SD ST upside rhythm pre-market open. As market opens, price move up at an increasing pace (0.5SD to 1.0SD). However, price tested VAH multiple times and I am not inclined for a BPB long UNTIL price breaks above VAH and pullback.

Trade Execution: Finally, at about 1006am (EST time), price breaks above VAH and I was stalking for a potential BPB long trade that is becoming more likely.

1st entry: Eventually, price breaks above VAH, and even though OF has yet to follow (it was zig-zag), I longed as I saw some buyers hitting bids.

  • TP: near to 2SD.
  • SL: prior swing low.
  • Areas of attention (!): 10k OF, VAH2, 1.0 Rhy

2nd entry: OF finally broken above 10k OF in a strong manner and I added 1 chip as price followed.

  • TP2: VAL1
  • SL: prior to swing low.

3rd entry: Added one more chip as buyer continued to hit the offers and lifted OF above 10k level.

  • TP3: Below 2SD
  • SL: prior to swing low
  • Areas of attention (!): 10k OF, VAL1, 1.0 Rhy
  • Close x2 if 1.0 Rhy is broken.

Trade management:

TP1 and TP3 were hit as strong OF came in. Then, I tightened 2nd position’s SL to below swing low.

Manual close final position when strong sellers came in at 1 after that.

What Could be Better:

Sizing – could have added one more chip for the 3rd entry, as at this time, buy OF has already indicated a solid buy intention as it has broken above 10k OF level.

02022021 ES trade screenshots
02022021 ES trade screenshots

Playbook Trade #3: BPB Short Trade

Date & Time: 3/2/2021, 9:35am EST

Context:

Pre-open: Price was in a rotational rhythm but was forming a potential VWAP ST imbalance down – was looking for a BPB short trade is price breaks below prior swing low and make a retracement towards VAL1.

Trade Execution:

1st and 2nd chip: After open, strong sell OF indeed sold below 5000 OF. I entered my first 2 chips when price retraced towards VAL1 and sell OF came in at 5000 OF + VWAP rhythm.

  • Initial TP1 & TP2: Prior swing low
  • Initial SL: Above 0.5SD

3rd chip: I entered my final 3rd chip as sell OF came in at 5000 OF + VWAP rhythm.

  • Initial TP3: VAH2
  • Initial SL: Above 0.5SD

Trade management:

  • 1st & 2nd chip: None – sell OF came in and took out my TPs.

Areas of attention: (!) 5000 OF (!) VAL1 (!) VWAP Rhythm

  • 3rd chip: Have to close my final trade manually as strong buying OF came in above 5000 OF level.

Areas of attention: (!) 5000 OF (!) 3263 OF (!) Pink line

What could be better: N/A. I feel the sizing in this trade is good enough – or perhaps I could have added one more chip in my initial 1st and 2nd entry (?)

03022021 ES trade screenshots
03022021 ES trade screenshots

Next Week Focus + Action Steps:

1. Keep developing mindfulness on ‘More Likely vs Less Likely’ thought process.

  • Action: Deep breath. “What is the market trying to achieve?”

2. More mindful of dynamic trade idea if/then with Areas of Attention + Add-if/Stop-if.

3. Sizing: Improve on sizing on A trades this week. Do my best to size up from 3 chips to 4 chips on A trades.

  • Action: Use visualization to help improve confidence in adding size to A trades. (Confidence management)

READ THIS BEFORE YOU GO THROUGH MY REVIEW

Dear readers, this Weekly Trade Review is a new weekly content that I started with the goal to record my takeaways from the market. Unlike my other articles, this review is not meant for everyone, and it is more like my personal journal. Hence, it is NORMAL if you do not get anything that I say in this review because (1) you are not trading, and/or (2) you are not exposed to the way I trade, especially on the everyday social media and Youtube. 

Background:

I began my trading journey in 2018, and has started to learn how to trade the S&P 500 Futures (a.k.a. /ES) exclusively since May 2020. I have been spending nearly a year on a mix of simulation and paper trading, and I am currently in my last phase of paper trading the live market. The reason is simple: to build consistency. If you CANNOT be consistent in paper trading, you CANNOT be consistent putting real money in the market.

My goal in 2021 is to pursue funding for my trading career and (finally) start building a solid income stream from trading. 

READ MORE: Trading vs Investing – what’s the difference?

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (/ES):

Some stats display in this review are in points instead of currency. Every 1 point movement in the ES is worth $50. 

As an example, say my entry is $3,000.00, my Target Profit is $3,010.00 (10 points) and my Stop Loss is $2,995.00 (5 points).

This means that I am risking 5 points ($250) to make 10 points ($500). 

How I trade:

The details of how I trade is hard to be explained in a few sentences. However, the core idea of how I deal with the market revolves around the Auction Market Theory – which works whether you are trading or investing. You can read about my article on Auction Market Theory HERE

My advice if you want to start trading:

This is worth a dedicated article. But in short, trading is a tough career regardless of what most marketers tell you out there on social media. The stats that you see with my execution is the effort of 30+ hours of work EVERY WEEK – and guess what, I have yet to earn any money from trading.

If you cannot put in the work ethic like a professional sports elite (even before you succeed), then please, skip trading and do something else. Please note that this is not meant to be sarcastic nor demotivating, but most people aren’t meant for trading – there are much better things to do in life than trading that can make you money (easier). 

Abbreviations:

  • BPB: Breakout Pullback
  • RPB: Return to Value Pullback
  • Long: Buy
  • Short: Sell
  • CVA: Cumulative Value Area
  • DVA: Developing Value Area
  • PVA: Prior Value Area
  • POC: Point of Control
  • VAH: Value Area High
  • VAL: Value Area Low
  • VWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price
  • OF: Order Flow
  • Buyers hitting offers/ask: Buyers are buying
  • Sellers hitting bids: Sellers are selling
  • SD: Standard Deviation
  • TP: Target Profit
  • SL: Stop Loss
  • ST: Slow Trend 
  • NT: Normal Trend
  • FT: Fast Trend
  • Rhy/Rhythm: The pace of the price movement
  • Chips: Risks.