Last Updated on March 1, 2021 by Chin Yi Xuan

If you are checking out my Weekly Trade Review for the first time, scroll to the bottom so you can get a context of this review.

WEEKLY REVIEW – WEEK 3 & 4, FEBRUARY 2021 (15/2/2021 – 26/2/2021)

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Stats:

a. Profit Calendar: 

Profit Calendar – Week 3 & 4, Feb 2021

b. Weekly Stats (W3 & W4): 

Weekly P/L, Max Runup & Max Drawdown (in points, not currency)
Weekly P/L, Max Runup & Max Drawdown (in points, not currency)

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Weekly Trade Review (Week 3, Feb 2021)

A. Overview:

A week full of takeaways and self-realization about my trading. Got myself into my worse tilt trading and discovered that I have been trying to execute too many improvements – leading to overload in my conscious competence and caused my eventual mental freeze on 17/2 – which led to my tilt.

B. Challenges Faced:

1. Accumulated Emotions from the losing week from Week 2. Was in a mix of fear and eagerness to take back gains after a losing week.

2. Trying to focus on too many things at one time with my conscious mind – ie. Context, Sizing, Trade priorities, Stop-if.

As a result, this caused me to went on a mental freeze on 17/2 as I was not able to devise any decision for my trade, especially Stop-If.

Coupled with points 1 and 2, it caused me to went on a revenge tilt (and largely ignored my risk mgmt) and led to the biggest losing day.

3. Context: Not logical mergers, no VA to tag-off trade idea.

I lack conviction and confidence when I do not have a good context to trade, and trading off unclear VA really wastes my valuable mental capital.

C. What I did well:

1. Good recognization of tilt and mindful of the problems I faced. Went on to explore the reasons to my tilt and found out that I was trying to:

a. Do too many things at once, and;

b. Existing weaknesses towards trading context, and;

c. Accumulated emotions from Week 2.

2. Willingness to admit my problems, and simplify my focus. As a result, I went on to have my best execution day after the day I tilted.

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Lesson & Takeaways from Week 3, Feb 2021:

  1. Simplify my focus so I have to mental capital to execute trades.
  2. Build my focus into unconscious competence so I can execute without using much mental capital.
  3. Be mindful of trading context – Context shift, Rhythm, and OF shift.

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Weekly Playbook Trades (Week 3):

In this section, I will share several trade ideas that made the most sense to me for the trading week. These are my A trades (a.k.a. my Playbook trades), and I look to keep improving on them.

Playbook Trade #1: RPB Short Trade (Trade 1)

Date & Time: 17/2/2021, 9:31am EST

Trade Context: Pre-market rhythm was in an imbalance down and price breaks into CVA – more likely RPB short.

Trade Execution:

1st Entry: As market opens, price retraced slightly towards VAH and I entered my 1st entry as sellers hit bids at 1a.

  • SL: Above -1.0SD
  • TP: 3900.5

2nd Entry: As sell OF continues to hit bids, I entered my 2nd position right after my 1st entry.

  • SL: Above -1.0SD
  • TP: Slightly Above VAL

3rd Entry: As sell OF went below -10k OF level at 1b, I entered my 3rd position, expecting price to keep selling down.

  • SL: VAH
  • TP: Slightly Above VAL

4th Entry: 4th entry as sellers attempted to sell below -10k OF level.

  • SL: VAH
  • TP: Prior swing low

Trade Management:

1st entry: Tighten TP1 to prior swing low and is hit. All is good.

2nd entry: Should have also aimed for prior swing low but instead, I placed the TP near VAL. Combining with mental freeze due to overwhelming, I was not able to come out with stop-if condition properly during live. My plan was to stop myself out when strong buy OF came in and I did have to opportunity at 1c.

However, due to being overwhelmed, I only managed to close my trade at 1d.

3rd entry: Similar to 2nd entry, was not able to execute my stop-if condition properly due to mental freeze. My plan was to stop myself out when strong buy OF came in and I did have to opportunity at 1c.

However, due to overwhelming, I only managed to close my trade at 1d.

4th entry: Poor desperate execution where I defied my entry chip by adding one more chip to a potentially losing trade.

Close as strong buy OF came in at 1d.

17022021 ES trade screenshots
17022021 ES trade screenshots

Summary: As a whole, there are a few reasons that led to the overall poor execution of this trade idea:

1. Context: I merged the PVA and this made the big picture slightly inaccurate – but this isn’t the biggest issue.

2. Overwhelmed by the thing that I want to improve consciously – trade priority, stop-if, context etc. Everything totally took up my mental capacity (like CPU RAM) and I ended up froze during my trade execution.

Action steps: Just focus on improving one thing consciously. One thing at a time!

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Playbook Trade #2: BPB Short Trade (Trade 1)

Date & Time: 18/2/2021, 9:38am EST

Context: The VA for the trading session is a little complex for the day as we are seeing a CVA overlapping with the latest PVA.

Price is moving in a clean downward 0.5/VWAP ST rhythm pre-open and opened near VAL of CVA. Price failed to break below VAH and attempted to rebound and test VAL of PVA.

Trade Execution:

As price test VAL of PVA, it was also where -0.5SD rhythm came in confluence with VAL and I entered with 2 chips.

  • TP: Prior swing low
  • SL: Above POC/swing high

Stop-if: Price breaks above POC/rhythm is broken.

Trade Management:

None – price hits TP not long after entry.

18022021 ES trade screenshots
18022021 ES trade screenshots

Summary & Feedback:

Solid trade execution – was much more composed today after yesterday’s (17/2) poor trading.

With the guidance of Jared Tendler’s Mental Game of Poker, I realized that I have been trying to fit in too many action steps & improvement to my trading – leading to a freeze in my mental capacity.

In this trading session, I simplify my focus on just (1) be mindful of overall context and (2) setting stop-ifs to my trades.

With this, I am able to think and execute my trades w/o overloading my mental capacity.

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Playbook Trade #3: BPB Short Trade (Trade 2)

Date & Time: 18/2/2021, 10:12am EST

Context: As price breaks below CVA, I was readying myself for a potential BPB short OR an RPB long should price breaks back into CVA and breaks the downside rhythm,

Trade Execution:

1st & 2nd entry: As price test VAL of CVA, sell OF came in at 2a and I entered with 2 chips.

  • TP: Prior swing low
  • SL: Tight stop above swing high.

Stop-if: Price breaks above POC/rhythm is broken.

3rd Entry: Entered 1 more chip as sellers keep hitting bids.

  • TP: VAH3
  • SL: Tight stop above swing high.

Trade Management:

As TP for my first 2 positions is hit at prior swing low, I tightened the SL of my final position nearer to VAL2.

As opposite OF came in at 2b, I manually closed my trade.

18022021 ES trade screenshots
18022021 ES trade screenshots

Summary & Feedback:

Solid trade execution – With my mental capacity more composed, I am able to navigate the trade better and manage my trade accordingly.

Only reminder for myself is to set Stop-If condition right after my entry.


Weekly Trade Review (Week 4, Feb 2021)

A. Overview:

A trading week with increased volatility and movement – a shift in context to take note of. Did my best within the range of my ability as the market develops.

B. What I did well?

  1. Context: Dynamic trade idea formation and if/thens as market develops.
  2. Stop-if: Good stop-if execution and followed my stop-if accordingly.
  3. Emotions: Better emotion control as I grasp context a little better than the previous week.

C. Challenges faced:

1. Emotions: Not all is perfect though, as I got caught off guard by the 20+ points losses on 25/2 (Thurs) and got a little emotional (angry) after got stopped out 3x in my rotational long attempt on 26/2.

That said, I quickly recovered and focus on the next trades.

2. Context: I discovered that most of my bigger losing trades are due to me missing key important context:

eg. 25/1: Overextended directional VWAP + directional extremes (1.5SD) while I was attempting a BPB short.

26/1: Did not notice downside rhythm has been forming prior to testing -2SD in my rotational long attempt.

3. Time for pre-trade prep: Did not do my pre-trade prep as well and as focused as I want due to time constraints. Need to pay attention to this as coming March market will open at 930pm.

4. Impulse trades done due to impatience. (impulse trade is NOT equivalent to trade ideas formed as market develops).

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Weekly Playbook Trades (Week 4):

In this section, I will share several trade ideas that made the most sense to me for the trading week. These are my A trades (a.k.a. my Playbook trades), and I look to keep improving on them.

Playbook Trade #1: RPB Long Trade (Trade 3)

Date & Time: 24/2/2021, 10:31am EST

Context: Price breaks back into PVA.

Trade execution: As price shows acceptance into PVA, and buy OF came in at 3a, I entered at 1 chip, awaiting for 2nd and 3rd entry.

  • TP: POC
  • SL: Below VAL and VWAP

Stop-if: Strong sell OF come in

Trade Management: Stopped myself out as I noticed OF started to go against me at 3b.

To improve: Perhaps allow OF to go against me longer as long as the context holds? Not sure about this yet but will give this a thought. If this is a trade off CVA perhaps I’ll do so but since it’s off PVA then I am more strict on my downside.

24022021 ES trade screenshots
24022021 ES trade screenshots

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Playbook Trade #2: BPB Short Trade (Trade 1)

Date & Time: 25/2/2021, 10:08am EST

Context: The market is in an imbalance down – looking for a BPB short trade if price breaks below CVA.

Execution + Management:

1st entry: Entered 1st chip as sell OF came in at 1a.

  • TP: In the middle between CVA and PVA
  • SL: Above VAL

Manually closed my trade as buyers came in at 1a. Planned for re-entry.

1st, 2nd & 3rd re-entry: Re-entered when sell OF breaks below -5000 OF level at 1b.

  • TP: VAH for PVA
  • SL: Above VAL

Stopped out as Buy OF came in again.

25022021 ES trade screenshots
25022021 ES trade screenshots

Feedback:

Poorly perceived Context: Price is overextended from VWAP @ 1.5SD.

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Playbook Trade #3: BPB Short Trade (Trade 2)

Date & Time: 25/2/2021, 10:30am EST

Context: Market is in an imbalance down – looking for a BPB short trade if price breaks below CVA.

Execution + Management:

1st entry: Entered 1st chip at 2a as price breaks below prior swing lows + buy OF failed to push further upward.

  • TP: VAH
  • SL: Above VAL

Add-if: Wait for potential retracement to add size.

Management: TP1 hit without management.

2nd entry: Added 1 more chip when sellers OF breaks below -5000 OF at 2b.

  • TP: VAH
  • SL: Above VAL

Stop-if: P > VAL / Strong Sell OF comes in

Management: As TP for 1st position hit, I tightened my SL and extended my TP further. Manually close my trade as Buy OF came in at 2c.

25022021 ES trade screenshots
25022021 ES trade screenshots

Feedback:

Felt nervous/tense as price did take a little time to goes down. Noticed this and took a deep breath and it helped me regain composure.

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Playbook Trade #4: BPB Short Trade (Trade 4)

Date & Time: 26/2/2021, 10:26am EST

Context: Look for RPB short if price breaks below CVA3 AND prior swing low.

Trade execution:

1st entry: Short when sell OF started to come in at 4a but manually closed myself out when strong buy OF came in.

2nd entry: Shorted again when sell OF came in at 4b.

3rd entry: Added size when more sell OF cane in at 4b.

  • SL: Above prior swing high
  • TP: As near to POC as possible

Trade Management:

2nd entry: Closed at mid-CVA.

3rd entry: Manual close as strong buy OF kicked in at 4c.

26022021 ES trade screenshots new
26022021 ES trade screenshots new

Feedback:

Good comeback after almost being tilt from trade 3. Deep breath and focused on the next good & logical trade.

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Lessons & Takeaways from Week 4, Feb 2021:

1. Context: Context is such a key component in my style of trading. The fact that I can win a lot when I get the context right and lose a lot when thing’s ain’t clear/I perceived context wrongly means I need to put more work to hone my context reading skills.

2. Time for prep: Much needed prep session. Need to start focusing more on prep especially in March market is going to start at 930pm.

3. Stop-if: Generated and followed well.

Week 1, March 2021 Action Plan/Focus:

1. Context – Focus on overall and developing context to generating trade ideas (or not taking a trade):

  • – Volatility
  • – Value Migration
  • – Logical mergers (Do not take any trades w/o VA to based off!)
  • – Shift in Rhythm (established/broken?)
  • – Overextended directional VWAP
  • – Shifts in OF: Absorbed/Lack of participation/Flush out weak hands

#More likely vs less likely

2. Stop-if:

  • A trades: let trade idea develop
  • B trades: Protect profit

3. Pre-trade prep – focus. 845pm start prep.

4. Risk parameters: maintain the same.


READ THIS BEFORE YOU GO THROUGH MY REVIEW

Dear readers, this Weekly Trade Review is a new weekly content that I started with the goal to record my takeaways from the market. Unlike my other articles, this review is not meant for everyone, and it is more like my personal journal. Hence, it is NORMAL if you do not get anything that I say in this review because (1) you are not trading, and/or (2) you are not exposed to the way I trade, especially on the everyday social media and Youtube. 

Background:

I began my trading journey in 2018, and has started to learn how to trade the S&P 500 Futures (a.k.a. /ES) exclusively since May 2020. I have been spending nearly a year on a mix of simulation and paper trading, and I am currently in my last phase of paper trading the live market. The reason is simple: to build consistency. If you CANNOT be consistent in paper trading, you CANNOT be consistent putting real money in the market.

My goal in 2021 is to pursue funding for my trading career and (finally) start building a solid income stream from trading. 

READ MORE: Trading vs Investing – what’s the difference?

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (/ES):

Some stats display in this review are in points instead of currency. Every 1 point movement in the ES is worth $50. 

As an example, say my entry is $3,000.00, my Target Profit is $3,010.00 (10 points) and my Stop Loss is $2,995.00 (5 points).

This means that I am risking 5 points ($250) to make 10 points ($500). 

How I trade:

The details of how I trade are hard to be explained in a few sentences. However, the core idea of how I deal with the market revolves around the Auction Market Theory – which works whether you are trading or investing. You can read about my article on Auction Market Theory HERE

My advice if you want to start trading:

This is worth a dedicated article. But in short, trading is a tough career regardless of what most marketers tell you out there on social media. The stats that you see with my execution is the effort of 30+ hours of work EVERY WEEK – and guess what, I have yet to earn any money from trading.

If you cannot put in the work ethic like a professional sports elite (even before you succeed), then please, skip trading and do something else. Please note that this is not meant to be sarcastic nor demotivating, but most people aren’t meant for trading – there are much better things to do in life than trading that can make you money (easier). 

Abbreviations:

  • BPB: Breakout Pullback
  • RPB: Return to Value Pullback
  • Long: Buy
  • Short: Sell
  • CVA: Cumulative Value Area
  • DVA: Developing Value Area
  • PVA: Prior Value Area
  • POC: Point of Control
  • VAH: Value Area High
  • VAL: Value Area Low
  • VWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price
  • OF: Order Flow
  • Buyers hitting offers/ask: Buyers are buying
  • Sellers hitting bids: Sellers are selling
  • SD: Standard Deviation
  • TP: Target Profit
  • SL: Stop Loss
  • ST: Slow Trend 
  • NT: Normal Trend
  • FT: Fast Trend
  • Rhy/Rhythm: The pace of the price movement
  • Chips: Risks.