Last Updated on March 6, 2021 by Chin Yi Xuan

If you are checking out my Weekly Trade Review for the first time, scroll to the bottom so you can get a context of this review.

WEEKLY REVIEW – WEEK 1, MARCH 2021 (1/3/2021 – 5/3/2021)

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Stats:

a. Profit Calendar: 

01032021 to 06032021 (March 2021 Week 1) - Profit Calendar
01032021 to 06032021 (March 2021 Week 1) – Profit Calendar

b. Weekly Stats (W1, March 2021): 

Weekly Stats (Week 1, March 2021)
Weekly Stats (Week 1, March 2021)

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Weekly Stats (Week 1, March 2021)
Weekly Stats (Week 1, March 2021)

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Weekly Trade Review (Week 1, March 2021)

A. Overview:

A great trading week full of learning opportunities to continue improving on my overall context understanding, stop-if management, and risk parameters. Being able to compose myself better while almost in a tilt with emotions on 3/3 made it possible for me to focus and execute my next good trade: One Good Trade, One Good Trade, and One Good Trade.

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B. What I did well?

  • 1. Overall Solid Pre-Trade Prep: Risk pillars and reminder, Trade idea if/then + ranking, No trade zone.
  • 2. Better overall context recognition especially after the big loss on 3/3 where I re-evaluate and refine my context understanding.
  • 3. Better stop-if management after a big rip on 3/3 – tightened SL and extend profit as price goes in my favor.
  • 4. Better emotion control after a big rip on 3/3 vs my previous tilt on 17/2 – did a good job focusing on the next good trade with proper risk management to come back green for the week.

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C. Challenges:

  1. Context: I certainly had a more coarse understanding towards context and rhythm prior to my big rip day on 3/3 – was not fully focused on things like upside/downside rhythm building, overextended directional VWAP and choppy @ edge context.
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  2. Risk Management: Was not so willing to follow risk parameters during a big rip – something to address further in this review.
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  3. Stop-if management – Prior to 3/3, I was not prepared for setting SL in situations like when price did a mid-air pullback, or have large max pullback entry – this caused a loss in one/two trade ideas to wiped out my gains for Mon and Tues.
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  4. Impatience – Some of my losses this week come from being impatient to execute off my planned trade idea and context.
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  5. Overall trade condition – Overall trade condition is a little tricky as well given market VAs are not as straightforward especially from Tuesday onwards.
Market Condition - Week 1 March 2021
Market Condition – Week 1 March 2021

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Weekly Playbook Trades (Week 1, March 2021):

In this section, I will share several trade ideas that made the most sense to me for the trading week. These are my A trades (a.k.a. my Playbook trades), and I look to keep improving on them.

Playbook Trade #1: BPB Long Trade (Trade 1)

Date & Time: 1/3/2021, 9:37 EST

Context: Price is in an overextended directional VWAP, so I was looking for a potential deeper retracement towards VAH for BPB long re-entry

Trade execution: As price retrace to test VAH and buy OF came in at 1b, I entered with 2 positions.

1st and 2nd entry:

  • SL: Below 0.5SD
  • TP: Prior swing high

Stop-if: P<VAL*

Then, as buy OF came in, I entered my 3rd position:

  • SL: Tight below VAL – adjust accordingly to limit loss/protect profit
  • TP: VAL

Stop-if: Strong sell OF comes in

Trade Management:

1st and 2nd entry – Tighten SL to BE and even higher to protect profit as price got nearer to TP.

3rd entry – Tighten SL as TP1 and TP2 is hit. Adjusted SL to BE and even higher as price got nearer to TP3.

01032021 ES trade screenshots
01032021 ES trade screenshots

Feedback:

This is a rather challenging trade as buy OF did not immediately come in after my entry – I experienced fear and anxiety while dealing with this trade, especially when sellers attempt to hit the bids after my entry.

Upon reflection, I’ve come to realize that I had this issue because I do not specify my Stop-If condition explicitly:

ie. Stop-if P<VAL. Instead, I should do:

“Stop-if strong sell OF came in at VAL.” With that, this would be a better call to action to manage my trade idea.

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Playbook Trade #2: RPB Long Trade (Trade 3)

Date & Time: 1/3/2021, 10:07am EST

Context: As price breaks into PVA, the thesis is to do an RPB long on acceptance.

Trade execution & Management:

1st entry: Entered with 1 chip as buy OF came in at VAL (with 1.0 NT confluence) at 3a.

  • SL: Tight below VAL
  • TP: 2.0SD

Stop-if: strong sell OF comes in and price follows

Trade Management: Closed trade as strong sell OF came in at 3b.

2nd entry: Re-entered as buyers OF came in to support VAL up at 3c (plus sellers were absorbed)

  • SL: Tight below VAL
  • TP: POC1

Stop-if: strong sell OF comes in

Trade Management: Closed trade as strong sell OF came in near POC.

01032021 ES trade screenshots
01032021 ES trade screenshots

Feedback: Could have managed this trade better with the addition of one more size on my 2nd re-entry.

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Playbook Trade #3: BPB Long Trade (Trade 1)

Date & Time: 3/3/2021, 9:35am EST

Context: Price opens above CVA as it failed to break into CVA – thesis was to do a BPB long as price pullback for an acceptance.

Was ready for an ideal pullback to VAH (A trade), or a mid-air pullback (B trade), where I expected myself to execute with a tight stop and smaller size due to potential deeper pullback.

Trade Execution: Entered with 2 chips as price did a mid-air pullback and buyers stepped in at 1a.

  • SL: Below VAH2
  • TP: Below VAL of CVA1

Stop-if: strong sell OF comes in

Trade Management:

1st entry: stopped out before I could adjust my SL upon entry 2nd entry: no trade mgmt as I got stopped the moment strong sellers hit the bids.

03032021 ES trade screenshots
03032021 ES trade screenshots

Feedback: Totally disregarded my initial trade thesis to size down (1 chip) and enter with a tight stop (at green ‘X’) – instead, I went ahead with 2 chips and a 10 points stop.

Action plan – be mindful of the overall context and SL management in regard to entry:

  • a. Normal ideal pullback (normal stop)
  • b. Mid-Air Pullback (tight stop)
  • c. Far max pullback (tight stop)

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Playbook Trade #4: RPB Short Trade (Trade 2)

Date & Time: 3/3/2021, 9:43am EST

Context: Price failed its BPB and break back into CVA. Thesis is IF price breaks below prior swing low and did an acceptance then go for a RPB short.

Trade Execution:

1st entry: Was impatient and entered 1 chip BEFORE price breaks below swing low.

  • SL: Below Tight above immediate swing high
  • TP: Mid CVA

Stop-if: strong sell OF comes in

Trade Management: Stopped myself as price for a brief moment went against my favor.2nd & 3rd entry:

Upon stopping myself out, price attempted a mid-air pullback and I entered my 2nd and 3rd trade at 2a without a tight stop and smaller size (1 chip instead of 2). Also to add on, rhythm has set a potential pace at 0.5SD so there is a large max pullback for this trade – all in all, a B trade that should be approached with a tight stop.

  • SL: Above VAH
  • TP: POC

Stop-if: Strong Buy OF came in

Trade Management: Price started to go against me BUT buy OF was weak so I continue to hold on until price eventually hit my stops.

03032021 ES trade screenshots
03032021 ES trade screenshots

Feedback:

1st entry – Good context to trade idea if/then, but poor abided during execution.

2nd and 3rd entry – Was not explicit of mid-air pullback management and hence got hit. Plus, was not aware of a potential 0.5SD downside rhythm forming which adds another layer of challenge to this RPB short.

As a whole, I am happy with my trade idea generation, but when it comes to actual execution them, I still need more work and refinement.

Reminder to self: Be more mindful of developing rhythm & VWAP and blend this understanding in approaching mid-air pullback and large max pullback entry! (ie. B trade with tight stop)

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Lessons & Key Takeaways from Week 1, March 2021:

As a whole, I realized that I HAVE to be more mindful of the overall trading context as market develops in order to come up with better trade ideas and reduce lesser ones. Also, I need to have a better approach to minimize my losses when I am wrong too:

1. Context: Introduced a couple of new details on market context as market develops along the day:

  • – Logical Value/Margers
  • – Shift in Rhythm: Established/Broken?
  • – Overextended directional VWAP
  • – Choppy @ Edge- Shift in OF

2. Stop-if: Improved my Stop-if management to limit my downside:

  • – Normal stop on ideal pullback
  • – Tight stop on mid-air pullback (prepare for re-entry if pullback further)
  • – Tight stop if rhythm has a large max pullback (prepare for re-entry if needed)

The upside of setting my stops based on how far does the price pullback is a good way to keep my losses small if price goes against my favor, but it’ll also force me to re-enter if I am stopped.

3. Risk parameters & management:

Established a more detailed risk parameters to limit losses:

  • – 5 chip max daily DD (5 points per chip) OR max 3 trade ideas losses per day.
  • – Once 3 chips DD are hit, reduce size to 1 chip per trade.
  • – Daily Max Giveback Rule of 30% once I am up by 20 points for the day.
  • – Reduce A trade size from 3 chips to 2 chips.

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Additional Thoughts/Questions:

1. How to maintain my composure during a tricky market condition/challenging DD?

-> Establish expectations on such scenario – expect to have some form of DD and believe in your risk parameters to handle such scenario.

2. How does it feels like to you before you went on full tilt/experience intense trading emotion?

  • “I am not suppose to lose.”
  • “This lost is not worth it.”
  • “I want to make this back.”
  • “This is worth X days of effort.”

Outcome: Revenge tilt – lost my touch on context and add size while I am not able to think straight – lose more.

3. What’s my unconscious competence’s strength – ie. the strength that I display when I am on tilt, or having strong emotions:

  • a. This week, I am more aware of overall trade context and am able to devise trade ideas based on logical context.
  • b. I am also able to form stop-if once I entered a trade.

That said, I am still learning especially on the courage of execution of my trade idea after a rip.

4. What are my weaknesses?

  • a. Impatience entry w/o considering overall context/trade plan.
  • b. Mental confidence on execution after a rip.
  • c. Revenge mindset with impulse to ignore risk parameters.

5. Describe the range of your performance:

A-Game:

  • a. Good grasp of context, rhythm and value.
  • b. Logical stop-if and being okay once I am being stopped.
  • c. Mindful of risk parameters.

B-Game:

Emotions – Greedy which led to chasing trades. Impatience which led to not following trade plan/context. None of these are crazy damaging BUT the impact that follows can lead me to C-Game.

Good – Still have a hang over context. Still can formulate and follow my stop-ifs.

C-Game:

Emotions: Revenge Tilt which led to poor perceived context, protective ego, adding size mindlessly and worst, not following risk parameters.

Also, I am at my C Game when I am trying to do too much, which led to overwhelming and mental freeze while in trade, leading to unable to formulate and execute stop-ifs.

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Week 2, March 2021 Focus:

1. Focused pre-trade prep.

2. Mindful of context and its shift to formulate bias and trade ideas.

3. Logical stop-ifs.

4. Mindful of risk management parameters.


READ THIS BEFORE YOU GO THROUGH MY REVIEW

Dear readers, this Weekly Trade Review is a new weekly content that I started with the goal to record my takeaways from the market. Unlike my other articles, this review is not meant for everyone, and it is more like my personal journal. Hence, it is NORMAL if you do not get anything that I say in this review because (1) you are not trading, and/or (2) you are not exposed to the way I trade, especially on the everyday social media and Youtube. 

Background:

I began my trading journey in 2018, and has started to learn how to trade the S&P 500 Futures (a.k.a. /ES) exclusively since May 2020. I have been spending nearly a year on a mix of simulation and paper trading, and I am currently in my last phase of paper trading the live market. The reason is simple: to build consistency. If you CANNOT be consistent in paper trading, you CANNOT be consistent putting real money in the market.

My goal in 2021 is to pursue funding for my trading career and (finally) start building a solid income stream from trading. 

READ MORE: Trading vs Investing – what’s the difference?

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (/ES):

Some stats display in this review are in points instead of currency. Every 1 point movement in the ES is worth $50. 

As an example, say my entry is $3,000.00, my Target Profit is $3,010.00 (10 points) and my Stop Loss is $2,995.00 (5 points).

This means that I am risking 5 points ($250) to make 10 points ($500). 

How I trade:

The details of how I trade are hard to be explained in a few sentences. However, the core idea of how I deal with the market revolves around the Auction Market Theory – which works whether you are trading or investing. You can read about my article on Auction Market Theory HERE

My advice if you want to start trading:

This is worth a dedicated article. But in short, trading is a tough career regardless of what most marketers tell you out there on social media. The stats that you see with my execution is the effort of 30+ hours of work EVERY WEEK – and guess what, I have yet to earn any money from trading.

If you cannot put in the work ethic like a professional sports elite (even before you succeed), then please, skip trading and do something else. Please note that this is not meant to be sarcastic nor demotivating, but most people aren’t meant for trading – there are much better things to do in life than trading that can make you money (easier). 

Abbreviations:

  • BPB: Breakout Pullback
  • RPB: Return to Value Pullback
  • Long: Buy
  • Short: Sell
  • CVA: Cumulative Value Area
  • DVA: Developing Value Area
  • PVA: Prior Value Area
  • POC: Point of Control
  • VAH: Value Area High
  • VAL: Value Area Low
  • VWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price
  • OF: Order Flow
  • Buyers hitting offers/ask: Buyers are buying
  • Sellers hitting bids: Sellers are selling
  • SD: Standard Deviation
  • TP: Target Profit
  • SL: Stop Loss
  • ST: Slow Trend 
  • NT: Normal Trend
  • FT: Fast Trend
  • Rhy/Rhythm: The pace of the price movement
  • Chips: Risks.