Last Updated on March 21, 2021 by Chin Yi Xuan

If you are checking out my Weekly Trade Review for the first time, scroll to the bottom so you can get a context of this review.

WEEKLY REVIEW – WEEK 3, MARCH 2021 (15/3/2021 – 19/3/2021)

p

Stats:

a. Profit Calendar: 

15032021 to 19032021 (March 2021 Week 3) - Profit Calendar
15032021 to 19032021 (March 2021 Week 3) – Profit Calendar

b. Weekly Stats (W3, March 2021): 

Weekly Stats (Week 3, March 2021)
Weekly Stats (Week 3, March 2021)

 

Weekly Stats (Week 3, March 2021)
Weekly Stats (Week 3, March 2021)

p

Weekly Trade Review (Week 3, March 2021)

A. Overview:

A shift in market conditions to slow, plus market at ATHs make this trading week a challenging one. The need to adapt to changes in trading conditions as well as being mindful of dynamic shifts in the market in live trading is crucial.

p

B. What I did well?

  • 1. Good pre-trade prep to adapt to 930pm market. Improved prep by marking areas of attention with green zone.
  • 2. Mindset: Focus on the present. One Good Trade after One Good Trade.
  • 3. Context: Mindful of the overall shift in market condition:

    – Mon & Tues: Slow market & ATH = No trade

    – Wed: Mindful of downside rhythm turning rotational

    – Thurs: Mindful of downside rhythm turning rotational

    – Fri: Dynamic areas of attention

  • 4. Stop-if: Kept losses tight and small when market conditions are tricky.

p

C. Challenges:

  1. Slow market condition pre-FOMC.
  2. Context: Needs further refinement in my context reading.

    eg. Wed (17/3), Trade #3 – Did not realize that downside rhythm has broken.

    Thurs (18/3), Trade #1 – Poor stop management on directional absorption. Should have tightened my SL when this happens because when sellers were to kick in then it’ll cause a strong downward movement.

  3. Execution: Impatient execution due to FOMO.

    – Fri (19/3), Trade #1, 1st entry – Did not wait till green zone was breach before executing.

    – Fri (19/3), Trade #4, 1st entry – Did not wait till green zone was breach before executing.

  4. Sizing: To be improved: Add to winning trade.
  5. Still adapting to 930pm trading routine.

p

Weekly Playbook Trades (Week 3, March 2021):

In this section, I will share several trade ideas that made the most sense to me for the trading week. These are my A trades (a.k.a. my Playbook trades), and I look to keep improving on them.

Playbook Trade #1: BPB Long Trade (Trade 1)

Date & Time: 18/3/2021, 9:36am EST

Context: Market was in an imbalance down pace pre-open. Thesis was to take a BPB long trade if price breaks above CVA and prior swing high.

Execution: As price breaks above CVA and pullback – strong buyers stepped in and I entered with 2 chips, with the conviction that price will go up.

  • SL1: Below VAH
  • SL2: Tight below entry
  • TP: VWAP

Trade management:

After entry, buy OF kept stepping in but Price barely went up – obvious buyers absorption. Was thinking of tightening my Stops just in case sellers stepped in but I didn’t so when sellers stepped in, SL1 was tagged and I closed my last position not long after that.

18032021 ES trade screenshot
18032021 ES trade screenshot

Feedback:

Overall trade idea and execution is a logical one given the context and OF confluence. However, 2 things could be better:

  1. Stop management – Tighten stop when there is a directional absorption.
  2. Sizing – reduce size to 1 chip/trade ideas when not confident of value/mergers.

p

Playbook Trade #2: RPB Short Trade (Trade 1)

Date & Time: 19/3/2021, 9:36am EST

Context: Pre-open rhythm was rotational turning imbalance down. Thesis was if price breaks below CVA (and prior pre-open swing low) with acceptance, then look for RPB short.

Execution:

1st entry – RPB short when price has yet to break below pre-open swing low. Manual close when price pullback, noticing that I may have entered too early.

2nd entry – Re-entry as price finally breaks below pre-open swing low and offer a brief pullback as acceptance.

  • SL: Tight above entry
  • TP: ~POC

Stop-if: strong buy OF steps in.

Trade Management:

2nd entry: Manual close as buy OF attempt to step in. Looking back, should have been more patient in managing the trade: should have tightened my stop instead of closing the trade.

19032021 ES trade screenshot
19032021 ES trade screenshot

Feedback:

To improve:

(1) Patience – wait for trade condition to be fulfilled before execution! Mark with green zone and pre-open visualization

(2) Stop management

p

Playbook Trade #3: RPB Long Trade (Trade 3)

Date & Time: 19/3/2021, 10:12am EST

Context: If price breaks below VAL and prior swing low (green zone), thesis was to go for a BPB short.

Execution:

1st entry: Entered too early before price breaks below green zone (prior swing low). Closed at BE when strong Buy OF stepped in.

2nd entry: Entered 2nd chip when price pullback towards VAL and sell OF stepped in.

  • SL: Tight above entry
  • TP: Mid

Stop-if: strong buy OF steps in

Management:

Manual close when strong buy OF kicks in.

19032021 ES trade screenshot
19032021 ES trade screenshot

Feedback:

1st entry too impatient. Mindful of trading plan.

Good notice of possible large max pullback to form 1.0NT downside rhythm.

p

Playbook Trade #4: RPB Short Trade (Trade 5)

Date & Time: 19/3/2021, 11:19am EST

Context: Price attempt to breakout of CVA. But after forming a zig-zag at VAH, I am thinking of a potential RPB short if price fails to breakout and return into CVA.

Execution: As price breaks its rotational rhythm at VAH (green zone) and offered a brief pullback, entered 1 chip of RPB short.

  • SL: Tight above entry
  • TP: near POC

Stop-if: strong buy OF steps in, (!) -2500 OF

Management:

Tighten SL as price goes in my favour to lock in profit. Manual close when strong buyers step in.

19032021 ES trade screenshot
19032021 ES trade screenshot

Feedback: Good recognition of the failure of price to Breakout and use the context to form trade idea.

p

Trading Questions from Week 3, March 2021:

  1. What to do in ATH without VA to execute trades? [Context]
  2. What to do in a slow market? [Context]
  3. What to do when mergers aren’t that solid? [Context]
  4. How to improve FOMO situation? [Mental]

Lessons & Key Takeaways from Week 3, March 2021:

1. As a whole, I am still holding strong on my focus of the week (Prep/Context/Stop-if).

2. The changes in market condition this week gave me great reflection on the need to further refine my read on shifts in context, and to come out with an action plan for an unfavourable shift in market condition.

– Note to self: In case of an unfavourable shift in context, there are 3 things to do/mindful of:

  • a. Don’t trade at all.
  • b. Reduce size, AND;
  • c. Focus on the most quality trades.

p

Week 4, March 2021 Focus:

With my stated experience and challenges above, here’s what I am planning to focus on for the coming trading week:

1. Focused Pre-trade prep:

  • – Risk pillars + reminders
  • – Trade ideas + ranking + if/then
  • – No trade zone
  • – Areas of attention

2. Mindful of Context shift to Action Steps:

  • – Value/Mergers
  • – Rhythm est/broken
  • – Overextended Directional VWAP
  • – Choppy @ VAH/L
  • – Shift in OF (tighten SL on directional absorption)

Keyword: Action steps a.k.a. What to do in a shift of context!

3. Stop-if:

  • -Ideal PB
  • – Mid-air PB
  • – Large max PB

#Deep breath: FOCUS IN THE PRESENT!


READ THIS BEFORE YOU GO THROUGH MY REVIEW

Dear readers, this Weekly Trade Review is a new weekly content that I started with the goal to record my takeaways from the market. Unlike my other articles, this review is not meant for everyone, and it is more like my personal journal. Hence, it is NORMAL if you do not get anything that I say in this review because (1) you are not trading, and/or (2) you are not exposed to the way I trade, especially on the everyday social media and Youtube. 

Background:

I began my trading journey in 2018, and has started to learn how to trade the S&P 500 Futures (a.k.a. /ES) exclusively since May 2020. I have been spending nearly a year on a mix of simulation and paper trading, and I am currently in my last phase of paper trading the live market. The reason is simple: to build consistency. If you CANNOT be consistent in paper trading, you CANNOT be consistent putting real money in the market.

My goal in 2021 is to pursue funding for my trading career and (finally) start building a solid income stream from trading. 

READ MORE: Trading vs Investing – what’s the difference?

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (/ES):

Some stats display in this review are in points instead of currency. Every 1 point movement in the ES is worth $50. 

As an example, say my entry is $3,000.00, my Target Profit is $3,010.00 (10 points) and my Stop Loss is $2,995.00 (5 points).

This means that I am risking 5 points ($250) to make 10 points ($500). 

How I trade:

The details of how I trade are hard to be explained in a few sentences. However, the core idea of how I deal with the market revolves around the Auction Market Theory – which works whether you are trading or investing. You can read about my article on Auction Market Theory HERE

My advice if you want to start trading:

This is worth a dedicated article. But in short, trading is a tough career regardless of what most marketers tell you out there on social media. The stats that you see with my execution is the effort of 30+ hours of work EVERY WEEK – and guess what, I have yet to earn any money from trading.

If you cannot put in the work ethic like a professional sports elite (even before you succeed), then please, skip trading and do something else. Please note that this is not meant to be sarcastic nor demotivating, but most people aren’t meant for trading – there are much better things to do in life than trading that can make you money (easier). 

Abbreviations:

  • BPB: Breakout Pullback
  • RPB: Return to Value Pullback
  • Long: Buy
  • Short: Sell
  • CVA: Cumulative Value Area
  • DVA: Developing Value Area
  • PVA: Prior Value Area
  • POC: Point of Control
  • VAH: Value Area High
  • VAL: Value Area Low
  • VWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price
  • OF: Order Flow
  • Buyers hitting offers/ask: Buyers are buying
  • Sellers hitting bids: Sellers are selling
  • SD: Standard Deviation
  • TP: Target Profit
  • SL: Stop Loss
  • ST: Slow Trend 
  • NT: Normal Trend
  • FT: Fast Trend
  • Rhy/Rhythm: The pace of the price movement
  • Chips: Risks.